1. Impact on China:

(1) Serious disruption of exports

- Loss of Price Competitiveness: The 145% tariff will cause Chinese products to become substantially more expensive in the U.S. market and almost uncompetitive.

- Plummeting exports: U.S. importers may switch to sourcing from other countries altogether, leading to a sharp decline in China's exports to the U.S. ##(2) Enterprises face tremendous pressure

- Shrinking profits: Chinese enterprises relying on the U.S. market will face a loss of orders and a sharp drop in profits.

- Survival Crisis: Some enterprises may close down due to their inability to withstand high tariffs, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.

(2) Accelerated industrial restructuring

- Supply chain shift: Chinese enterprises may be forced to shift their production bases to Southeast Asia or other regions to avoid tariffs.

- Market diversification: China will accelerate the development of markets in Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa, etc. to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market.

(3) Economic slowdown

- GDP impact: Exports to the U.S. are one of the key drivers of China's economic growth, and high tariffs may lead to a slowdown in China's economic growth. - Employment pressure: Export-related industries may face layoff pressure, affecting social stability.

2. Impact on the United States

(1) Soaring Consumer Costs

- Rising prices: U.S. consumers will pay higher prices for Chinese products, leading to a higher cost of living.

- Inflationary pressure: High tariffs may exacerbate the inflation problem in the United States.

(2) Disruption of Business Supply Chains

- Increased production costs: U.S. companies that rely on Chinese raw materials and components will face supply chain disruptions and rising costs. - Decreased competitiveness: U.S. manufacturing may lose global competitiveness due to rising costs.

(3) Damage to Farmers and Specific Industries

- Countermeasures: China may impose tariffs on U.S. agricultural products (e.g., soybeans, corn) and other products, hitting U.S. farmers and related industries.

- Widening trade deficit: The U.S. may further widen its trade deficit due to higher import costs.

3. Impact on the global economy

(1) Supply chain reshaping

- Global corporate restructuring: Multinational corporations may shift their supply chains from China, leading to global supply chain rearrangement.

- Rising costs: Supply chain restructuring will increase the operating costs of global enterprises.

(2) Increased trade uncertainty

- Declining investment confidence: High tariff policies will increase global trade uncertainty and affect international investor confidence.

- Slower economic growth: The volume of global trade may decrease due to the US-China tariff war, dragging down global economic growth.

(3) Damage to the multilateral trading system

- WTO rules challenged: The U.S. unilateral imposition of high tariffs may further weaken the authority of the multilateral trading system such as the WTO.

- Rise of trade protectionism: Other countries may follow the example of the U.S. and adopt similar protectionist measures.

3. China's response strategy

(1) Countermeasures

- Reciprocal tariffs: China may impose high tariffs on U.S. products to safeguard its interests.

- Restrictions on U.S. firms: China may take restrictive measures against U.S. firms investing and operating in China.

(2) Legal Measures

- WTO Litigation: China may file lawsuits against unreasonable U.S. tariffs through the WTO.

- International Public Opinion: China can enlist the support of the international community to condemn U.S. unilateralist behavior.

(3) Economic adjustment

-Expanding domestic demand: Reduce dependence on exports by stimulating domestic consumption and investment.

-Industrial upgrading: Accelerate scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading to enhance the global competitiveness of Chinese products.

(4) Market Diversification

- Develop new markets: Strengthen trade cooperation with other countries (e.g., Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa) and reduce dependence on the U.S. market.

- Regional cooperation: Promote the “Belt and Road” initiative to deepen economic cooperation with countries along the route.